Table 2 Performance of the early detection model based on ctDNA methylation in the training and test sets
Patient group | Youden's index best | High specificity | High sensitivity | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tested | Positive | Positive rate (%) | Tested | Positive | Positive rate (%) | Tested | Positive | Positive rate (%) | |
Training set | |||||||||
Stage I | 34 | 27 | 79.4% (62.1–91.2%) | 34 | 23 | 67.6% (49.4–82.6%) | 34 | 28 | 82.4% (65.5–93.2%) |
Stage II | 54 | 48 | 88.9% (77.3–95.8%) | 54 | 46 | 85.2% (72.8–93.4%) | 54 | 48 | 88.9% (77.4–95.8%) |
Stage III | 35 | 32 | 91.4% (76.9–98.2%) | 35 | 28 | 80.0% (63.1–91.6%) | 35 | 33 | 94.3% (80.9–99.3%) |
Stage IV | 26 | 25 | 96.2% (80.3–99.9%) | 26 | 23 | 88.5% (69.7–97.5%) | 26 | 25 | 96.2% (80.3–99.9%) |
All cancer | 149 | 132 | 88.6% (82.4–93.2%) | 149 | 120 | 80.6% (73.2–86.6%) | 149 | 134 | 89.9% (83.9–94.3%) |
Healthy control | 149 | 16 | 10.7% (6.3–16.9%) | 149 | 8 | 5.4% (2.4–10.3%) | 149 | 21 | 14.1% (9.0–20.7%) |
Test set | |||||||||
Stage I | 17 | 12 | 70.6% (43.9–89.6%) | 17 | 11 | 64.7% (38.2–85.8%) | 17 | 12 | 70.6% (44.0–89.7%) |
Stage II | 25 | 22 | 88.0% (68.6–97.4%) | 25 | 22 | 88.0% (68.8–97.5%) | 25 | 22 | 88.0% (68.6–97.4%) |
Stage III | 15 | 13 | 86.7% (59.6–98.4%) | 15 | 12 | 80.0% (52.0–95.7%) | 15 | 13 | 86.7% (59.6–98.4%) |
Stage IV | 10 | 9 | 90.0% (55.2–99.7%) | 10 | 9 | 90.0% (55.4–99.7%) | 10 | 9 | 90.0% (55.6–99.7%) |
All cancer | 67 | 56 | 83.6% (72.5–91.6%) | 67 | 54 | 80.6% (69.1–89.3%) | 67 | 56 | 83.6% (72.4–91.6%) |
Healthy control | 74 | 6 | 8.1% (3.0–16.8%) | 74 | 3 | 4.1% (0.8–11.4%) | 74 | 6 | 8.1% (3.0–16.9%) |