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Table 3 Total and indirect effects of smoking in childhood on health outcomes (N = 2978)

From: Lifetime exposure to smoking, epigenetic aging, and morbidity and mortality in older adults

Outcome Total effect 95% confidence interval
Panel A. Total effects of smoking in youth on health outcomes
Mortality 0.0012 − 0.0265 0.0284
Cancer 0.0323 − 0.0193 0.0848
High blood pressure 0.0071 − 0.0452 0.0596
Lung disease 0.0749 0.0282 0.1213
Heart disease 0.0249 − 0.0292 0.0788
Outcome Mediator(s) Indirect effect 95% confidence interval
Panel B. Indirect effects of smoking in youth on health outcomes—GrimAgeAdj
Mortality GrimAgeAdj 0.0042 0.0011 0.0076
Cancer GrimAgeAdj 0.0042 0.0003 0.0101
High blood pressure GrimAgeAdj 0.0092 0.0021 0.0184
Lung disease GrimAgeAdj 0.0080 0.0018 0.0160
Heart disease GrimAgeAdj 0.0075 0.0017 0.0151
Mortality Adult Pack Years 0.0008 − 0.0093 0.0110
Cancer Adult Pack Years 0.0207 − 0.0084 0.0527
High blood pressure Adult Pack Years − 0.0054 − 0.0214 0.0112
Lung disease Adult Pack Years 0.0284 0.0136 0.0436
Heart disease Adult Pack Years 0.0041 − 0.0149 0.0229
Mortality Adult Pack Years—> GrimAgeAdj 0.0084 0.0042 0.0128
Cancer Adult Pack Years—> GrimAgeAdj 0.0084 0.0013 0.0155
High blood pressure Adult Pack Years—> GrimAgeAdj 0.0184 0.0110 0.0264
Lung disease Adult Pack Years—> GrimAgeAdj 0.0161 0.0091 0.0235
Heart disease Adult Pack Years—> GrimAgeAdj 0.0150 0.0082 0.0222
Panel C. Indirect effects of smoking in youth on health outcomes—PhenoAgeAdj
Mortality PhenoAgeAdj − 0.0007 − 0.0044 0.0024
Cancer PhenoAgeAdj − 0.0005 − 0.0035 0.0016
High blood pressure PhenoAgeAdj − 0.0007 − 0.0052 0.0026
Lung disease PhenoAgeAdj − 0.0003 − 0.0027 0.0011
Heart disease PhenoAgeAdj − 0.0006 − 0.0040 0.0022
Mortality Adult Pack Years 0.0080 − 0.0012 0.0172
Cancer Adult Pack Years 0.0285 0.0031 0.0565
High blood pressure Adult Pack Years 0.0122 − 0.0025 0.0281
Lung disease Adult Pack Years 0.0445 0.0299 0.0601
Heart disease Adult Pack Years 0.0185 − 0.0022 0.0393
Mortality Adult Pack Years—> PhenoAgeAdj 0.0016 0.0003 0.0034
Cancer Adult Pack Years—> PhenoAgeAdj 0.0011 0.0001 0.0028
High blood pressure Adult Pack Years—> PhenoAgeAdj 0.0016 0.0001 0.0040
Lung disease Adult Pack Years—> PhenoAgeAdj 0.0007 − 0.0002 0.0021
Heart disease Adult Pack Years—> PhenoAgeAdj 0.0013 0.0001 0.0032
Panel D. Indirect effects of smoking in youth on health outcomes—DunedinPoAm38
Mortality DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0008 − 0.0032 0.0037
Cancer DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0008 − 0.0031 0.0054
High blood pressure DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0013 − 0.0047 0.0079
Lung disease DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0009 − 0.0032 0.0058
Heart disease DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0009 − 0.0036 0.0050
Mortality Adult Pack Years 0.0028 − 0.0063 0.0120
Cancer Adult Pack Years 0.0220 − 0.0035 0.0495
High blood pressure Adult Pack Years 0.0022 − 0.0128 0.0180
Lung disease Adult Pack Years 0.0374 0.0235 0.0521
Heart disease Adult Pack Years 0.0121 − 0.0086 0.0325
Mortality Adult Pack Years—> DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0065 0.0035 0.0098
Cancer Adult Pack Years—> DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0072 0.0020 0.0128
High blood pressure Adult Pack Years—> DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0112 0.0050 0.0182
Lung disease Adult Pack Years—> DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0075 0.0018 0.0135
Heart disease Adult Pack Years—> DunedinPoAm38Adj 0.0074 0.0022 0.0132